Will Obama Seek Reelection?

I saw an article recently calling for Obama to step down as president.  One term of his is more than enough for me, but I don’t think Joe Biden would be a much better president than Obama and I doubt I’m the only one.  Remember, if Obama leaves, Biden’s the guy.  So, let’s back off a little here.  Logically, one would usually assume that Obama will certainly seek reelection, but will he? 

I know that seems like a silly question.  He won decisively in 2008 and has a proven track record as a strong campaigner (his actual leadership skills and useful experience, or lack thereof, are a topic for another day).  He’s fairly young by US president standards.  Obama is a fund-raising machine, expected to raise over a billion (yes, with a ‘B’) dollars for 2012.  He’s America’s first (half) black president.  Obama is also generally viewed as the leader of the Democratic party and, aside from the Clintons, nobody else in the party has such stature.  And one of the Clintons was already president for two terms, thereby ineligible for 2012 per the 22^nd Amendment.  So, why in my right mind would I ask whether he’s going to seek reelection?

I see two reasons, and even though I do think Obama will run, I think it’s a worthwhile line of thought.  I’ve already discussed the possibility of (and compelling case for) Obama being impeached for violating the War Powers Act with his military excursion into Libya, so I won’t belabor that point.  He also faces potential legal trouble due to the Department of Justice’s Operation Fast and Furious, though that is still somewhat off the screen for the mainstream media.  Legal issues are the first reason, but there’s a second reason.

Look, let’s be honest, Obama’s poll numbers stink and they’re only getting worse.  The economy isn’t recovering as robustly as it could.  Unemployment, debt/GDP, and commodity prices are still uncomfortably high, housing is still a mess, and middle class incomes have stagnated.  We just got downgraded, too.  Voters place heavy blame on Obama and his policies for that. 

Rightly so, in my view, but it still shouldn’t be all the blame because there’s only so much a president can do.  Also, to be fair, some of this is squarely on Obama’s shoulders and some was inherited.  Either way, Obama can only blame George W. Bush for so long.  All this is yet another story for another time, but the longer the economy languishes in a very slow recovery (worse, a double-dip or even worse, a second collapse), the more trouble it is for Obama’s poll numbers.  Furthermore, Obama will go down in history as the guy in charge when we got downgraded for the first (and hopefully only) time.  I’m not predicting anything economically here, just relating the economy to Obama’s poll numbers.

Personally, I think one of the biggest mistakes was how he did the stimulus and financial regulation, then washed his hands of the economy to focus on Obamacare.  I view all three policies as epic failures, but that’s not the point.  The point is how casually he moved on from economic and financial regulatory matters to healthcare.  It shows his startling lack of comprehension on economic and financial matters in that he moved on before actually solving the problems.

If Obama’s poll numbers continue to decline, he may not seek reelection.  The Democratic party cares about retaining the White House, whether Obama’s their person or not.  Such an occurrence, a president not seeking reelection while eligible to do so, is not unprecedented. 

Though hardly a perfect comparison, we need to go back to LBJ in 1968.  LBJ was eligible to seek reelection in 1968.  He was president for about a year following JFK’s assassination, then won reelection in 1964.  Had LBJ served more than two years of JFK’s term instead of the one he did serve (in other words, had JFK been assassinated a year or so earlier), LBJ would not have been eligible for the 1968 election per the 22^nd Amendment of the Constitution, which was passed about a decade prior to try to prevent another four-term president like FDR (I have another post in the backlog discussing this amendment).

There were two reasons that LBJ didn’t seek reelection in 1968.  One, the Democratic party was a splintered mess.  There were four factions vying for power, lead by LBJ, Eugene McCarthy, Robert Kennedy, and George Wallace, respectively.  LBJ won the primary with a weak 49% of the vote, but McCarthy still had a strong showing with 42%.  That’s virtually unheard of and a major sign of a party divided.  Seeing no way he could unite the party and win reelection, LBJ bowed out.  The second reason was LBJ’s concerns about his own health.  LBJ died on January 22, 1973, which was a mere two days after the conclusion of what could have been his second full term as president.  These two reasons aren’t in play right now.  Obama’s poll numbers are bad and declining, but the Democratic party appears unified and Obama seems healthy.

So, if Obama doesn’t seek reelection, who would be the Democrats’ presidential candidate?  One would think the most logical choice would be Joe Biden, the current vice president, but I think current Secretary of State Hillary Clinton would be the stronger choice.  In my opinion, Biden would lose a presidential election to all but the weakest GOP competitors whereas Clinton would be able to hold her own against even the strongest GOP competitors.  Several established Democrats, such as Harry Reid and Nancy Pelosi, share Biden’s problem while others, like John Kerry and Al Gore, have previously proven their inability to win close elections, both coming within one state of defeating George W. Bush.  Ohio sank Kerry and if Gore would have won his home state of Tennessee, Florida would not have mattered (that’s my way of saying that I don’t buy the interpretation that the Supreme Court stole the election for George W. Bush because I can’t think of a time when the winner of a presidential election lost his home state). 

Scandals have decimated the rising stars of the Democratic party.  John Edwards and Anthony Weiner come to mind.  However, they may surprise us.  After all, Barack Obama came from out of nowhere to take the nomination and election in 2008.  Maybe they have somebody else who’s flying under the radar, waiting in the wings.  We’ll just have to wait and see.