This is apparently the 5th of potentially 17 debates for the GOP presidential, according to 2012presidentialelectionnews.com (found here). Clearly, moving or cancelling this debate wouldn’t have been that big of a deal seeing as how there are so many others, and this is just for primary season. This doesn’t include the debates for the general election between Obama (presumably – see my previous post for why he is likely, but not guaranteed to be there) and the GOP winner.
What I expect to see in this debate (and all those other GOP primary debates) is a strong uniformity in economic matters and energy policy. Job creation will be the focus, along with other economic and fiscal matters. We’ll hear a lot along the lines of this accurate and articulate line of thought from Mitt Romney’s recent op-ed in the USA Today (found here). “Each proposal is rooted in the conservative premise that government itself cannot create jobs. At best, government can provide a framework in which economic growth can occur. All too often, however, government gets in the way.” I wouldn’t be surprised to see a fairly uniform consensus regarding the repeal (or at least dramatic weakening) of both Obamacare and financial regulation, along with lots of talk about other regulatory reforms, such as streamlining the processes and making sure they consider economic impacts.
We may even see some rare praise for Obama because of his announcement last week to suspend new smog regulations from the EPA, which he rightly should be praised for because this is not only the right thing to do on its own grounds (tighter smog standards aren’t needed because they were already tightened during the Bush administration, we already have darn clean air except in the big cities, which have still improved greatly over time, and the technology simply doesn’t exist to get there), but because it’s a good first step to show that Obama’s serious about the economy and regulatory reform.
We’ll also hear about tax reform and tax cuts. Dividend, capital gain, and interest tax cuts or eliminations will be discussed. I suspect we’ll hear some mixed reviews of Obama’s Social Security tax cut, too. Of course, we’ll also hear some about spending cuts. I wouldn’t be surprised if they spent some time on foreign policy, too. We’re coming up on the 10-year anniversary of the September 11 attacks, so be ready to hear some about military matters. I’m also ready to hear some free trade, immigration, and energy policy discussion.
I think we’ll see some differences among the candidates regarding social issues, but these will probably be along the lines of how strongly the candidates oppose things like abortion, gay marriage/unions, gun control, separation of church and state, illegal immigration, maybe even welfare, social security, and Medicare or Medicaid. Expect to see some contrast between the staunch social conservatives like Bachmann, Perry, Gingrich, Cain, and Santorum versus the social moderates like Romney and Huntsman.
All eyes will be on Perry this time around because it’s his first debate. Will he play it safe or will he swing for the fences? The upside for him is he could further energize the social conservatives in the GOP, and maybe even the libertarians. The downside is he could make himself sound too crazy and further alienate moderates and independents. I don’t think he’s going to play it safe, and I think Perry will want to get more momentum going. I’d say Perry’s entry into the race is probably going to hurt Bachmann the most. If Perry can drain enough of her voters, he’ll really become the guy to beat. I don’t foresee many people deserting Romney for Perry or Bachmann because Romney is aiming more for the moderates and independents within the GOP.
It’s a given that Obama will be a punching bag for the GOP contenders. What’s not as certain is how aggressively the GOP candidates will go after each other. I think we’ll see a general division between the staunch conservatives (Perry, Bachmann, Gingrich, Cain, and Santorum) and the so-called ‘RINOs’ (Republicans in Name Only) like Romney and Huntsman. Paul is kind of the odd-man-out in this breakdown because though his libertarianism sometimes trumps his social conservatism, he isn’t what I would consider a moderate on social issues. We’ll probably even see some swipes within those two broad groups. Largely, the GOP race is a two-candidate race between Romney and Perry at this time, with Bachmann in a close third. I don’t see the also-rans like Gingrich, Santorum, Paul, Cain, and Huntsman having that much of an impact at the debate. Also, I don’t anticipate any further entries into the GOP field, seeing as how Rick Perry has finally entered the hunt, but I could be proven wrong.
Speaking of Obama, his poll numbers are going down the tubes as he’s gearing up another speech Thursday night, also focused on job creation, coming off of rallies he attended over Labor Day weekend to try to cozy back up to the unions. Maybe he finally got the memo that the economy is an issue. I’ve been critical of him in the past, but I hope he delivers tonight. In particular, I hope he finally gets serious about regulatory and tax reform.
We’ll probably hear about an infrastructure bank or some other expansion of infrastructure spending. It sounds great in theory, but it doesn’t work. It’s not that I question the need for infrastructure spending. I fully agree with it and know the need better than most given my engineering background. Indeed, the American Society of Civil Engineers graded the US with C’s and D’s over several categories and estimates we’ll need a couple trillion dollars over the next few years to improve that into the B range. The problem is that infrastructure spending historically doesn’t work as an economic stimulus in the short term. It didn’t work when FDR tried it in the 1930’s and it didn’t work earlier in Obama’s presidency with the stimulus bill. However, it does lay the foundation for stronger growth in the long term, the importance of which cannot be understated.
We may even hear about attempts to extend or enlarge the Social Security tax credit or perhaps some worker retraining programs. Surely, we’ll hear about how Washington is dysfunctional. I’m looking for Obama to try to pitch the message that he’s trying the best he can, but he really was dealt a bad hand and he needs more time. Of course, he’ll try to shirk responsibility for the current malaise and play the blame game, particularly towards the Bush administration, the current GOP membership, the rich people, and corporate America. I hope he’ll keep the demonizing rhetoric in check, but I’m not holding my breath.
I’ll follow this up with my impressions and notes of the debate and the speech. They’ll both probably be shorter than my preview. And don’t worry. I won’t be posting a preview and review of every single primary debate. Like I said, I don’t usually get serious with the primaries until a little later in the season.
For anyone who’s interested in my real-time thoughts, I’m going to try tweeting during these two events. This’ll be a grand experiment for me. @TimABRussell is my Twitter handle.
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