I promised myself I wouldn’t do a whole post on the GOP race for a while. I will honor that promise by only devoting part of a post to the GOP race here. The other part of this post presents links to two articles. Each has 13 charts that make the case for or against the effectiveness of Obamanomics. We’ll look at the articles first before circling back to the GOP primary.
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Derek Thompson at The Atlantic presented an article showing 13 charts that make the case for Obama’s reelection and Obamanomics. Not to be outdone, Jim Pethokoukis of the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) provided a counter. Links to both are shown at the end of this post. Have a look at the two articles before continuing on here. I’ll wait.
Really, I just wanted to share these two articles on here to provide an easy side-by-side of the arguments you’ll see in the coming months about the economy. It’s human nature to a degree to just seek out data that upholds your current position and ignore data that contradicts your current position. This is known as confirmation bias. I don’t want to get into picking them apart here (of course, both have flaws and strengths). Hopefully, it provides food for thought for both sides, even if only for one side to see what the other side will use to counter.
Also, let’s not fall into another logical trap. Don’t automatically assume that one side is right and the other is wrong. It’s possible for both to be right and it’s also possible for neither to be right.
Pretty much all that both sides agree on is that housing and employment are still a mess. You’ll note Thompson tends to focus more on a vacuum of the current environment (generally only deviating selectively to highlight the severity of the current crisis) whereas Pethokoukis attempts several times to compare the current environment to previous environments.
Very obviously, both sides are cherry-picking data and keeping things in favorable frames of reference for their arguments. In many cases, they’re either talking about apples and oranges or they’re talking about two sides of the same die (6-sided, 20-sided, depends on the issue), even in cases where, at a quick glance, it would appear charts from each set (or within the same set) contradict one another.
The trick isn’t to just focus on what the chart is showing you, but focus on what the chart is NOT showing you. How does a chart fit into the bigger picture? That’s part of why I think a quick read through these two articles can be an instructive exercise. Also, there’s good information to be taken from both sets of charts.
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And, back to the GOP primary. Rick Santorum has gone 3/5 in state contests since Super Tuesday, winning in Kansas, Mississippi, and Alabama. Mitt Romney picked up a win in Wyoming and Hawaii (along with Guam, the Virgin Islands, the Northern Mariana Islands, and American Samoa, which are not states, but contain delegates nevertheless). Newt Gingrich and Ron Paul both failed to win any contests outright, though both picked up some delegates. The results and my current delegate count are in the table below.
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There’s not really that much to say. In Romney-Santorum-Gingrich-Paul terms, Romney faired well, but in Romney-Paul-anti-Romney terms, Romney didn’t do as well. Anti-Romney needs to consolidate to one person, and Santorum is clearly the one because he’s continued his outperformance over Gingrich. That Romney didn’t really lose that much ground to anti-Romney in overall delegate accumulation is indicative of the non-winner-take-all dynamics I’ve previously discussed.
I’m seeing article after article question Romney’s momentum. They say he has the math, but not the momentum, due to a pair of third-place finishes in Alabama and Mississippi. These pundits are jumping the gun here. Alabama and Mississippi are two of the most conservative states in the USA. Romney taking first or second in either (or both) states would have been a surprise to me even when we consider the anti-Romney divide. Romney placing third in both is not, and should not be, a surprise, in my opinion. It also ignores his decisive victory in Hawaii, Wyoming, and the non-states.
I’m also seeing a lot of articles make the case that Santorum is better off with Gingrich in the race rather than without him. The rationale is because Romney must fight on two fronts instead of one if Gingrich stays in the race. The belief is Romney’s treasure chest is getting bled dry. It’s an interesting line of thought, but the math doesn’t work that way. If Gingrich drops out of the race and anti-Romney consolidates behind Santorum, Romney will still win delegates, but at a slower rate because of the non-winner-take-all dynamics I’ve previously discussed. Delegates that would go to Romney in a four-person race would instead go to Santorum in a three-person race. Santorum would thus gain delegates at a higher rate in a three-way race than a four-way race, potentially enough to erase Romney’s lead if we were to also combine that with the addition of Gingrich’s delegates to Santorum’s delegates. I simply don’t see a majority, or even a meaningful portion, of Gingrich’s supporters flocking to Romney over Santorum.
As such, I’m sticking to my guns. If you want Romney to win, you want Gingrich to stay, but if you want Romney to lose, you want Gingrich to go. It’s Romney’s race to lose as long as it remains a four-man race.
Anyway, now we’re looking ahead. Here’s your guide for the rest of primary season in another quick Excel table.
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My partial break from the GOP primary race will become a full break because, unless someone (Gingrich) drops out of the race, I’m done posting about the GOP primary until after the 3 April results, which will include next week’s races in Illinois and Louisiana.
Links:
Pro-Obamanomics Charts: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/02/the-white-houses-economic-case-for-reelection-in-13-charts/253806/
Anti-Obamanomics Charts: http://blog.american.com/2012/03/the-economic-case-against-obamanomics-in-13-charts/
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